Using a round bat to hit a small round baseball traveling 90+ mph and breaking in unexpected directions is considered the hardest activity in sports. Knowing the speed, break, and location of a pitch beforehand would allow a hitter to prepare for the challenge, like knowing what questions will be on an exam beforehand. Some teams have tried to gain this edge by stealing signs or figuring out “tells” based on a pitcher’s preparation for each throw. But are there certain pitch sequences that pitchers like to throw that hitters might identify in a pitcher’s past throwing patterns, without resorting to such tactics? If so, could hitters see one pitch, and predict the next, thus increasing their chance of success? Aggregating pitch sequence data over generic situations, like against all hitters or against all left-handed hitters, there are sequences of two pitches that appear significantly more often than expected considering the pitcher’s arsenal. However, this outcome is an artifact of not accounting for pitcher strategy. In specific situations, like facing a single hitter in a single year, pitchers tend to develop unique arsenals. Therefore, for a hitter to best predict an upcoming pitch, they must determine what the pitcher’s arsenal is against them, rather than making predictions based on aggregated data.

Atharva Pathak, UG '26: