Global warming is a problem. For Russia, which lies in the great North, the impacts will be even further exacerbated. Russia is warming about 2.5-3 times faster than the rest of the planet, largely due to the effects of polar amplification. However, science can only go so far in forecasting ecological patterns, without consideration of politics or history. This paper takes a multidisciplinary approach that puts scientific literature in context with the politics and history of the modern Russian state. The research argues that while climate change is thought to mark the end of Russia, the opposite may likely be true: that Russia will succeed as the world falls apart. Global warming will increase the nation’s self-reliance, expansion, and wealth—characteristics arguably integral to the Russian identity—while its consequences can and will be swept aside.
This essay identifies two key priorities of the Russian government: combatting isolationism and maintaining “great power” (hegemonic) status. The essay then identifies three manners in which these goals are satisfied by global warming: first, the expansion of Arctic trade routes; second, the possibility for Arctic/Siberian resource colonization; and third, self-sufficient agriculture practices. The research ends with a strong caveat that while many in the country will suffer, these people will overwhelmingly be in unprotected classes—people who have historically been neglected by Russian policymakers. The overall analysis is important as it explains why Russia has been so slow to acknowledge and change their behaviors regarding climate change. Constructive climate progress must utilize these factors.